Heinrich, Merkley, Padilla, Shaheen, Schiff, Rosen, Cortez Masto, Wyden, Klobuchar: CFTC Must Rein in Wildfire Bets on Prediction Markets

WASHINGTON – This week, U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich (D-N.M), Ranking Member of the U.S. Senate and Natural Resources Committee, joined U.S. Senators Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) to press the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on its plans to crack down on prediction markets now offering event contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires. 

“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the Senators wrote in a letter to CFTC Chair Michael Selig. “There’s also the heightened risk – according to state and local fire officials – that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful. By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading.”  

The Senators pressed the CFTC to swiftly tackle unrestricted betting on wildfires and put in place common-sense guardrails to prevent gamblers from making a profit as wildfires threaten communities nationwide. 

Read the full text of the letter here and below:   

We write to express concern regarding the disturbing news that prediction markets are now offering event contracts for individuals to bet on wildfires. Prediction markets have been enabled to expand rapidly, increasingly inviting speculation on war, political violence, disasters, and public emergencies that raise ethical and public policy concerns. These markets risk creating perverse incentives, undermining public trust and commodifying human suffering in ways that warrant careful scrutiny. 

Recent public reports have highlighted how Polymarket—the largest prediction market platform in the world—accepted more than $1.2 million in bets surrounding the Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025. These fires devastated the Los Angeles area, claiming the lives of 31 people and destroying more than 16,000 structures. Another report even spotlighted the launch of a new prediction market platform that accepts only simulated bets on wildfires in California and whose slogan boasts, “You can’t predict fire, but you can trade on it.”   

Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit. There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful. By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading. 

As the United States faces yet another record-breaking fire season this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cannot allow these prediction markets to offer unrestricted betting on wildfires. While these bets appear to be offered only on the offshore Polymarket site, it is only a matter of time before other U.S. based Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) try to offer these. The CFTC must lead the charge to rein in these contracts in the U.S. and offshore and put in place common-sense guardrails to prevent people from profiting as wildfires threaten communities. 

As such, we request you provide answers to the following questions by August 14, 2026: